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FINAL+4PIT
PIT

PIT

16-12-9

73
CHI

CHI

14-18-6

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLSun, Dec 28FinalSeriesPIT leads series 1-0VegasPIT -155

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins went into Chicago Blackhawks and beat them, 7–3.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Justin Brazeau

Justin Brazeau

RW · #16

3Points

3

G

0

A

—

SOG

CHI · top performer

CHI
Tyler Bertuzzi

Tyler Bertuzzi

LW · #59

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
7
3
PIT16-12-9CHI14-18-6
PIT

PIT

16-12-9

7
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CHI

CHI

14-18-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

PIM

9

Season series

PIT leads series 1-0

Dec 29PITPIT7@CHICHI3today
Jan 30CHICHI2@PITPIT6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT-15561%
CHICHI+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat CHI 7-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
PIT4307
CHI0213

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · CHI won 1

4
0

1

3
2

2

0
1

3

PIT
CHI

Play-by-play · 302 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    PIT 7·CHI 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    PIT 7·CHI 3

  3. 3rd·19:59

    Thomas Novak faceoff won against Jason Dickinson

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 3

  4. 3rd·19:59

    Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (4)

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 3

  5. 3rd·19:25

    Ryan Greene shot blocked by Bryan Rust

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  6. 3rd·18:53

    Nick Lardis hit Rickard Rakell

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  7. 3rd·18:50

    Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Ryan Greene

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  8. 3rd·18:50

    Goalie Stopped

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  9. 3rd·18:48

    Oliver Moore Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  10. 3rd·17:13

    Teuvo Teravainen Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  11. 3rd·16:13

    Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Sidney Crosby

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  12. 3rd·16:13

    Goalie Stopped

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  13. 3rd·16:11

    Wyatt Kaiser Wrist Shot saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  14. 3rd·15:55

    Nick Lardis shot blocked by Parker Wotherspoon

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  15. 3rd·15:40

    Jack St. Ivany hit Nick Lardis

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  16. 3rd·15:24

    Nick Lardis Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  17. 3rd·14:52

    Noel Acciari Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  18. 3rd·14:27

    Blake Lizotte faceoff won against Sam Lafferty

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  19. 3rd·14:27

    Puck in Benches

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  20. 3rd·14:22

    Giveaway by Justin Brazeau

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  21. 3rd·14:18

    Nick Foligno Backhand saved by Arturs Silovs

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  22. 3rd·13:57

    Teuvo Teravainen hit Jack St. Ivany

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  23. 3rd·13:33

    Connor Murphy Slap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  24. 3rd·12:56

    Ryan Donato faceoff won against Ben Kindel

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  25. 3rd·12:56

    Icing

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  26. 3rd·12:11

    Colton Dach Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  27. 3rd·12:08

    Giveaway by Kris Letang

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  28. 3rd·11:50

    Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Sidney Crosby

    ·

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  29. 3rd·11:50

    Off-side

    PIT 7·CHI 2

  30. 3rd·11:42

    Giveaway by Sidney Crosby

    PIT 7·CHI 2

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

24

Shots

24

50.0

PCT

0.0

11

PIM

9

31

Faceoffs W

27

17

Blocks

4

20

Giveaways

15

6

Takeaways

4

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 5.5·PIT -155/CHI +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Louis CrevierCHI · D
    SHOT MPH102.899
  • Erik KarlssonPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.897
  • Alex VlasicCHI · D
    BURSTS7190
  • Ryan DonatoCHI · C
    SHOT MPH91.388
  • Sidney CrosbyPIT · C
    SHOT MPH88.787

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · CHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR