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FINAL+2NSH
TOR

TOR

15-14-5

35
NSH

NSH

14-16-4

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLSat, Dec 20FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTOR -110

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators held off Toronto Maple Leafs, 5–3.

NSH +1.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

TOR
Bobby McMann

Bobby McMann

C · #74

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

NSH
Steven Stamkos

Steven Stamkos

C · #91

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
5
TOR15-14-5NSH14-16-4
TOR

TOR

15-14-5

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NSH

NSH

14-16-4

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 14NSHNSH4@TORTOR7
Dec 21TORTOR3@NSHNSH5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TORTOR-11052%
NSHNSH-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗SpreadBet TOR -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat TOR 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
TOR1113
NSH0235

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · NSH won 2

1
0

1

1
2

2

1
3

3

TOR
NSH

Play-by-play · 289 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    TOR 3·NSH 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TOR 3·NSH 5

  3. 3rd·19:51

    Scott Laughton faceoff won against Fedor Svechkov

    ·

    TOR 3·NSH 5

  4. 3rd·19:51

    Cole Smith Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (11), Michael McCarron (5)

    · ·

    TOR 3·NSH 5

  5. 3rd·19:43

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    TOR 3·NSH 4

  6. 3rd·19:43

    Icing

    TOR 3·NSH 4

  7. 3rd·19:06

    John Tavares faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    TOR 3·NSH 4

  8. 3rd·19:06

    Bobby McMann Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (8), Easton Cowan (7)

    · ·

    TOR 3·NSH 4

  9. 3rd·18:25

    Erik Haula faceoff won against Scott Laughton

    ·

    TOR 2·NSH 4

  10. 3rd·18:25

    Steven Stamkos Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (12)

    ·

    TOR 2·NSH 4

  11. 3rd·18:21

    Takeaway by Filip Forsberg

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  12. 3rd·18:08

    Ryan O'Reilly shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson

    ·

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  13. 3rd·17:45

    Michael McCarron faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  14. 3rd·17:45

    Goalie Stopped

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  15. 3rd·17:38

    Morgan Rielly Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  16. 3rd·17:34

    Calle Jarnkrok Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  17. 3rd·17:03

    Matthew Knies shot blocked by Erik Haula

    ·

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  18. 3rd·16:34

    Filip Forsberg Wrist Shot saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  19. 3rd·16:33

    Luke Evangelista Backhand saved by Joseph Woll

    ·

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  20. 3rd·16:09

    Dakota Joshua Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  21. 3rd·15:59

    Bobby McMann Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  22. 3rd·14:55

    William Nylander Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  23. 3rd·14:35

    Matthew Knies Tip-In High and Wide Left

    ·

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  24. 3rd·14:29

    Giveaway by Nick Blankenburg

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  25. 3rd·14:03

    Brady Skjei shot blocked by Morgan Rielly

    ·

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  26. 3rd·14:02

    Giveaway by Matthew Knies

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  27. 3rd·13:34

    Cole Smith hit Troy Stecher

    · ·

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  28. 3rd·12:54

    Scott Laughton faceoff won against Michael McCarron

    ·

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  29. 3rd·12:54

    Puck in Netting

    TOR 2·NSH 3

  30. 3rd·12:52

    Reid Schaefer Tip-In Above Crossbar

    ·

    TOR 2·NSH 3

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

22

Shots

34

0.0

PCT

50.0

6

PIM

4

28

Faceoffs W

17

23

Blocks

12

20

Giveaways

13

2

Takeaways

4

Betting line

TOR -1.5·O/U 5.5·TOR -110/NSH -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE
  • Bobby McMannSEA · C
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497
  • Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
    SHOT MPH94.596
  • Filip ForsbergNSH · LW
    DIST MI246.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · NSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR