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FINAL+2CGY
SEA

SEA

12-14-6

24
CGY

CGY

14-17-4

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLThu, Dec 18FinalSeriesCGY leads series 1-0VegasCGY -175

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off Seattle Kraken, 4–2.

CGY -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Frederick Gaudreau

Frederick Gaudreau

C · #89

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

CGY
Mikael Backlund

Mikael Backlund

C · #11

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
4
SEA12-14-6CGY14-17-4
SEA

SEA

12-14-6

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CGY

CGY

14-17-4

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

2

Season series

CGY leads series 1-0

Dec 19SEASEA2@CGYCGY4today
Jan 6SEASEA5@CGYCGY1
Apr 11CGYCGY1@SEASEA4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CGY -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEASEA+14541%
CGYCGY-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CGY -1.5↗SpreadBet CGY -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat SEA 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
SEA0202
CGY0134

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · CGY won 1

0
0

1

2
1

2

0
3

3

SEA
CGY

Play-by-play · 317 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    SEA 2·CGY 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    SEA 2·CGY 4

  3. 3rd·19:52

    Ben Meyers faceoff won against John Beecher

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 4

  4. 3rd·19:52

    Mikael Backlund Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Nazem Kadri (23), Joel Farabee (9)

    · ·

    SEA 2·CGY 4

  5. 3rd·19:44

    Vince Dunn shot blocked by Joel Farabee

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  6. 3rd·19:40

    Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Nazem Kadri

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  7. 3rd·19:40

    Puck in Netting

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  8. 3rd·19:38

    Vince Dunn shot blocked by Joel Farabee

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  9. 3rd·19:31

    Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Nazem Kadri

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  10. 3rd·19:31

    Timeout - Visitor

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  11. 3rd·19:31

    Puck in Crowd

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  12. 3rd·19:10

    Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  13. 3rd·19:10

    Icing

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  14. 3rd·19:04

    Kevin Bahl hit Freddy Gaudreau

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  15. 3rd·18:55

    Shane Wright Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  16. 3rd·17:55

    Eeli Tolvanen shot blocked by Joel Farabee

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  17. 3rd·16:56

    Mikael Backlund shot blocked by Ryan Lindgren

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  18. 3rd·16:40

    Takeaway by Jamie Oleksiak

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  19. 3rd·16:33

    Yan Kuznetsov hit Jacob Melanson

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  20. 3rd·15:35

    Giveaway by Jordan Eberle

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  21. 3rd·15:18

    Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Matty Beniers

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  22. 3rd·15:18

    Goalie Stopped

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  23. 3rd·15:15

    Ryan Lindgren Deflected saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  24. 3rd·14:44

    Morgan Frost Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  25. 3rd·14:10

    John Beecher shot blocked by Ryker Evans

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  26. 3rd·13:49

    John Beecher faceoff won against Shane Wright

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  27. 3rd·13:49

    Icing

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  28. 3rd·13:46

    Jamie Oleksiak hit John Beecher

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  29. 3rd·13:09

    Kevin Bahl hit Mason Marchment

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

  30. 3rd·12:51

    Matty Beniers faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    SEA 2·CGY 3

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

23

Shots

46

100.0

PCT

20.0

10

PIM

2

26

Faceoffs W

35

14

Blocks

14

13

Giveaways

8

6

Takeaways

4

Betting line

CGY -1.5·O/U 5.5·SEA +145/CGY -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Matty BeniersSEA · C
    DIST MI267.798
  • Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
    SHOT MPH100.297
  • Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
    DIST MI54.196
  • Mikael BacklundCGY · C
    SHOT MPH93.594
  • Jordan EberleSEA · RW
    DIST MI236.192

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · CGY favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

CGY vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Bobby McMannSEA
    3.0± 1.8high
  • Brandon MontourSEA
    3.0± 1.3high
  • Blake ColemanCGY
    2.7± 1.6high

Goals

  • Blake ColemanCGY
    0.4± 0.7high
  • Morgan FrostCGY
    0.4± 0.7high
  • Joel FarabeeCGY
    0.3± 0.5high

Points

  • Matt CoronatoCGY
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Morgan FrostCGY
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Blake ColemanCGY
    0.6± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR