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FINAL+2BUF
BUF

BUF

14-14-4

31
SEA

SEA

12-12-6

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLSun, Dec 14FinalSeriesBUF leads series 1-0VegasBUF -130

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Seattle Kraken and beat them, 3–1.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Alex Tuch

Alex Tuch

RW · #89

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

SEA
Jordan Eberle

Jordan Eberle

RW · #7

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Seattle Kraken · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
1
BUF14-14-4SEA12-12-6
BUF

BUF

14-14-4

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
SEA

SEA

12-12-6

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

4

Season series

BUF leads series 1-0

Dec 15BUFBUF3@SEASEA1today
Mar 28SEASEA2@BUFBUF3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF-13057%
SEASEA+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat SEA 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF1113
SEA0101

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · SEA won 0

1
0

1

1
1

2

1
0

3

BUF
SEA

Play-by-play · 294 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 3·SEA 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 3·SEA 1

  3. 3rd·19:43

    Kaapo Kakko Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 3·SEA 1

  4. 3rd·19:31

    Shane Wright faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    BUF 3·SEA 1

  5. 3rd·19:31

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 3·SEA 1

  6. 3rd·19:29

    Ryan Winterton Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 3·SEA 1

  7. 3rd·19:14

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Shane Wright

    ·

    BUF 3·SEA 1

  8. 3rd·19:14

    Zach Benson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (11), Ryan McLeod (12)

    · ·

    BUF 3·SEA 1

  9. 3rd·19:06

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson

    ·

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  10. 3rd·19:06

    Icing

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  11. 3rd·18:46

    Takeaway by Matty Beniers

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  12. 3rd·18:19

    Owen Power Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord

    ·

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  13. 3rd·17:57

    Tage Thompson hit Vince Dunn

    ·

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  14. 3rd·17:49

    Owen Power shot blocked by Eeli Tolvanen

    ·

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  15. 3rd·17:45

    Peyton Krebs Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord

    ·

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  16. 3rd·16:37

    Ben Meyers hit Jack Quinn

    ·

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  17. 3rd·15:33

    Kaapo Kakko hit Josh Doan

    ·

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  18. 3rd·14:56

    Giveaway by Noah Ostlund

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  19. 3rd·14:46

    Jack Quinn Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  20. 3rd·14:19

    Bowen Byram hit Tye Kartye

    ·

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  21. 3rd·13:57

    Brandon Montour Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  22. 3rd·13:40

    Giveaway by Rasmus Dahlin

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  23. 3rd·13:21

    Ryan Lindgren Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  24. 3rd·13:11

    Giveaway by Jordan Greenway

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  25. 3rd·12:36

    Giveaway by Owen Power

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  26. 3rd·12:26

    Giveaway by Ryan Winterton

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  27. 3rd·12:04

    Bowen Byram hit Ben Meyers

    ·

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  28. 3rd·11:52

    Jamie Oleksiak hit Zach Benson

    ·

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  29. 3rd·11:48

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Shane Wright

    ·

    BUF 2·SEA 1

  30. 3rd·11:48

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 2·SEA 1

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

23

Shots

24

0.0

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

4

22

Faceoffs W

25

13

Blocks

11

19

Giveaways

13

5

Takeaways

5

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 5.5·BUF -130/SEA +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Brandon MontourSEA · D
    SHOT MPH101.698
  • Matty BeniersSEA · C
    DIST MI267.798
  • Jordan EberleSEA · RW
    DIST MI236.192
  • Ryker EvansSEA · D
    SKATE MPH23.092

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SEA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SEA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SEA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR