Miami Marlins vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 9, 2026

FINAL+9NYM

MIA

6-8-1

NYM

8-5-1

Clover Park · Port St. Lucie, Florida

6,211 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Eury PerezMIA
5.5± 3.3low

Hits

Liam HicksMIA
1.3± 0.7high
Otto LopezMIA
1.3± 0.8high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Otto LopezMIA
2.2± 2.1high
Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
Liam HicksMIA
2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

Liam HicksMIA
0.7± 0.7high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.3high
A.J. EwingNYM
0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 2.9medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

NYM

.723

OPS

◀

.718

.673

.326

OBP

◀

.319

.298

4.44

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.99

3.96

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.06

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.27

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

MIA 0 · NYM 9 (by 9)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NYM	4	1	0	0	0	4	0	0	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
X. Edwards2B	.150	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Norby1B	.250	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. Morel1B	.174	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
H. HernandezLF	.263	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. AcostaSS	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. AldermanRF	.158	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. JohnsonCF	.182	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. NavarretoC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. PintarCF	.214	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
A. SalasSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OlmsteadSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JohnsonSS	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Beshears1B	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. McDowellOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. ColeyCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. BoydLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. HostetlerC	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Rataczak1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	0	5	0	0	6	6

Player

.150

.250

.174

.263

.250

.158

.182

.000

.214

.000

.000

.500

.400

.000

.000

.000

.200

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. PhillipsRP	2.0	5	5	1	1	3	45
C. FaucherRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17
G. ActonRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21
Ju. KingSP	1.1	1	3	1	3	0	45
C. CentalaP	0.2	2	1	0	0	0	23
J. EknessRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	4	33
Team	8.0	8	9	2	8	8	184

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.2

2.0

Team

8.0

184

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. TauchmanRF	.308	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
L. TorrensC	.267	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. BengeRF	.391	3	1	2	3	0	1	1
T. TaylorCF	.278	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
R. MauricioSS	.286	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
R. Clifford1B	.059	4	1	1	2	0	0	0
C. Arroyo2B	.294	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
V. BrujanSS	.333	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
H. SengerC	.188	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
K. VillavicencioSS	.125	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
B. RortvedtC	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. SalgadoOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Smith2B	.000	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
Y. HernándezSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Schwartz1B	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. HouckSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MosqueraLF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Willhoite3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	9	8	9	0	8	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. ThorntonSP	3.0	2	0	0	1	3	54
C. KimbrelRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	5
D. WilliamsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
O. GómezRP	1.0	1	0	0	2	0	25
M. TurnerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	14
C. AustinRP	1.0	1	0	0	2	0	33
B. MetoyerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
Team	9.0	5	0	0	6	6	156

Team

MIA

NYM

—

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs MIA.