New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 23, 2026

FINAL+1NYM

NYM

2-1

TOR

1-2

TD Ballpark · Dunedin, Florida

5,520 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.4± 2.1medium

Hits

Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.9high
Carson BengeNYM
1.1± 0.6high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.1± 2.5high
Bo BichetteNYM
1.7± 2.0high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
A.J. EwingNYM
0.6± 0.9high
Bo BichetteNYM
0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

TOR

.673

OPS

.718

▶

.699

.299

OBP

.319

▶

.310

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.06

4.10

Team ERA

4.17

4.12

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.32

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYM 4 · TOR 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	4
TOR	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MelendezDH	.200	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. Vientos1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. MauricioSS	.250	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Young1B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
H. SengerC	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. BrujanSS	.200	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. CluffSS	.667	2	1	2	0	0	1	0
N. MorabitoLF	.200	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
J. BaeCF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Arroyo2B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Reimer3B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. Clifford1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. ParadaC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. BengeRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BayRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Kessinger3B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. VillavicencioSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PacheOF	.600	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
Team		31	4	6	3	1	5	11

Player

.200

.000

.250

.250

.200

.200

.667

.200

.250

.250

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.250

.333

.600

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HolmesSP	3.2	1	2	2	2	3	--
J. BrewerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
T. MyersRP	2.1	3	0	0	0	3	--
G. LouisRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	--
R. LambertRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
T. McGoughSP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	--
Team	9.0	7	3	3	3	11	0

Player

3.2

0.1

2.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. GimenezSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Clement2B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. KirkC	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. BargerRF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
K. Okamoto3B	.250	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
D. VarshoCF	.500	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. LukesRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SchneiderLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Cowles3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Mendoza3B	1.000	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
S. Keys3B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. StubbsC	.667	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. PlanchartC	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. SchreckLF	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. McAdoo2B	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. JimenezDH	.600	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Harry2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. PinangoLF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	3	7	3	1	3	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerriosSP	2.2	3	2	2	1	2	--
C. LarkinSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
B. FisherRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	--
M. FluhartyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
J. AlcalaRP	1.0	1	1	0	2	1	--
J. FlemingRP	1.1	1	1	1	1	0	--
C. DallasSP	1.2	0	0	0	0	4	--
Team	9.0	6	4	3	5	11	0

Team

NYM

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs NYM.