
TEX
3-1

LAA
1-2
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.6%
ensemble · TEX favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
TEX
league avg
LAA
.712
OPS
.718
.716
.320
OBP
.319
.318
4.07
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.51
3.95
Team ERA
4.17
4.58
1.24
WHIP
1.31
1.40
8.6
K / 9
8.5
▶8.9
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
TEX wins
TEX 6 · LAA 0 (by 6)
Model verdict
No projection
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
TEX · top performer

Danny Jansen
C
2-1
AB-H
1
R
2
RBI
LAA · top performer

Jeimer Candelario
3B
1-1
AB-H
0
R
0
RBI
Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 1st Inning
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .800 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .200 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .571 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .200 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .667 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .364 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .143 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 34 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -- | |
| Team | 9.0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .400 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .250 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .667 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .250 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .333 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .250 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .250 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .667 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .250 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .333 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .333 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .500 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 34 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -- | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -- | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| Team | 9.0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantTEX
LAA
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
7
Hits
8
6
Runs
0
0
Errors
0
Team stats
TEX
Away
Stat
LAA
Home
6
Runs
0
7
Hits
8
0
Errors
0
12
TB
11
1
HR
0
5
BB
2
7
K
10
14
LOB
20
Season series
TEX leads series 1-0
How it ended
TEX beat LAA 6-0. D. Jansen led the way — 1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.667 OPS.
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
LAA vs TEX
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJansen · homered to left (386 feet), Haggerty scored.
Wade · singled to left, Foscue scored.
Haggerty · singled to right, Cauley scored and Wade scored, Velazquez to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Period scoring
TEX won 2 · LAA won 0
Inn 1
Jansen 2
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Haggerty 2
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 601 plays
End of the 9th inning
TEX 6·LAA 0
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
E. Rodriguez flied out to left.
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa pitches to Eric Rodriguez
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Walton flied out to center.
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Meckler stole second.
·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Meckler stole second.
·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa pitches to Donovan Walton
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Flores struck out looking.
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
−0.5pp
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa pitches to Juan Flores
· ·
TEX 6·LAA 0
·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Meckler walked.
·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Pitch 7 : Ball 4
·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Pitch 5 : Ball 3
·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking
·
TEX 6·LAA 0
Recap · MLB
exas Rangers went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 94 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands