Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 20, 2026

FINAL+1ARI

ARI

1-0

COL

0-1

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

10,033 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

COL vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.3± 2.0medium
Eduardo RodriguezARI
4.2± 1.8medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
4.0± 2.1medium

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.4± 0.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.4± 0.5high
Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.5± 2.2high
Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.8high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.3± 4.0high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.7high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high
Ketel MarteARI
0.7± 0.7high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

COL

.696

OPS

.718

▶

.740

.309

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.21

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.59

4.31

Team ERA

◀

4.18

5.58

1.29

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.52

6.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 3 · COL 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3
COL	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. PerdomoSS	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. SmithDH	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. MorenoC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Arenado3B	.500	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
C. Santana1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. ThomasCF	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
R. WaldschmidtCF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BarrosaCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Baker1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AmayaSS	1.000	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
L. Groover1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. O'NeillC	1.000	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. FernandezDH	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. JonesCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TroyLF	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. RobinsonLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A.J. VukovichCF	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		35	3	8	3	1	1	9

Player

.000

.333

.333

.000

.500

.000

1.000

.000

.000

.000

1.000

.000

1.000

.000

.000

.500

.000

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. HatchRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
A. HoffmannRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
P. AbnerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
I. CampbellRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	--
B. JarvisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
J. CurtissRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
T. RashiRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
J. CabreraSP	2.0	0	0	0	2	1	--
Team	9.0	3	2	2	2	8	0

Player

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

Team

9.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. CarriggCF	.500	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. BeckLF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
E. Julien2B	.000	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
B. FulfordDH	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Karros3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. VeenLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Lopez2B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. AvansLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Stevens2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. JohnstonRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Ritter2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. SullivanC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. HillRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. MachinSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CondonOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. ThompsonRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	2	3	2	0	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SenzatelaRP	2.0	3	1	1	0	0	--
J. MejiaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
Z. AgnosRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
R. PetitRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
L. PeraltaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
S. SullivanSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
P. WeigelRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	--
K. EatonP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
Team	9.0	8	3	3	1	9	0

Team

ARI

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

COL vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs ARI.