
ARI
1-0

COL
0-1
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.4%
ensemble · ARI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
ARI
league avg
COL
.696
OPS
.718
▶.740
.309
OBP
.319
▶.324
4.21
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.59
4.31
Team ERA
4.18
5.58
1.29
WHIP
1.31
1.52
6.9
K / 9
8.5
▶7.2
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
ARI wins
ARI 3 · COL 2 (by 1)
Model verdict
No projection
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
ARI · top performer

Nolan Arenado
3B
2-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
COL · top performer

Jake McCarthy
CF
2-1
AB-H
1
R
0
RBI
Biggest swing: 29pp · Top 8th Inning
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .000 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .333 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .333 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .500 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .000 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.000 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1.000 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .500 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .500 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 35 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | |
| 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -- | |
| Team | 9.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .500 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .500 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .333 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 29 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -- | |
| Team | 9.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantARI
COL
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
8
Hits
3
3
Runs
2
0
Errors
2
Team stats
ARI
Away
Stat
COL
Home
3
Runs
2
8
Hits
3
0
Errors
2
14
TB
5
1
HR
0
1
BB
2
9
K
8
13
LOB
8
Season series
ARI leads series 1-0
How it ended
ARI beat COL 3-2. N. Arenado led the way — 1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS. O'Neill's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (29pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
COL vs ARI
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactArenado · homered to left center (408 feet).
Carrigg · tripled to center, McCarthy scored.
O'Neill · doubled to right, Amaya scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Period scoring
ARI won 2 · COL won 1
Inn 1
Inn 2
Arenado 1
Inn 3
Inn 4
Carrigg 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Amaya 1
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 543 plays
End of the 9th inning
ARI 3·COL 2
· ·
ARI 3·COL 2
Machín flied out to right.BIG MOMENT
· ·
ARI 3·COL 2
−10pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
ARI 3·COL 2
G. Hill stole second.
·
ARI 3·COL 2
G. Hill stole second.
·
ARI 3·COL 2
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
ARI 3·COL 2
Jose Cabrera pitches to Vimael Machin
· ·
ARI 3·COL 2
G. Hill ran for B. Sullivan
· ·
ARI 3·COL 2
·
ARI 3·COL 2
B. Sullivan walked.
· ·
ARI 3·COL 2
+5pp
Pitch 4 : Ball 4
·
ARI 3·COL 2
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
·
ARI 3·COL 2
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
·
ARI 3·COL 2
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
ARI 3·COL 2
Jose Cabrera pitches to Brett Sullivan
· ·
ARI 3·COL 2
·
ARI 3·COL 2
Ritter struck out looking.BIG MOMENT
·
ARI 3·COL 2
−8pp
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking
·
ARI 3·COL 2
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking
·
ARI 3·COL 2
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
ARI 3·COL 2
Jose Cabrera pitches to Ryan Ritter
·
ARI 3·COL 2
·
ARI 3·COL 2
Johnston flied out to left.BIG MOMENT
·
ARI 3·COL 2
−10pp
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
·
ARI 3·COL 2
Jose Cabrera pitches to Troy Johnston
· ·
ARI 3·COL 2
Bottom of the 9th inning
ARI 3·COL 2
Middle of the 9th inning
ARI 3·COL 2
· ·
ARI 3·COL 2
Vukovich struck out looking.
· ·
ARI 3·COL 2
+3pp
Recap · MLB
rizona Diamondbacks went into Colorado Rockies and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
126
projections · 97 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands