Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox: MLB Prediction, Pick & Odds — Sep 17, 2026

DET

34-47

PregameThu, 7:40 PM EDT

CHW

41-38

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Home starter

TBD

Probable starter not yet announced. ESPN typically posts the card 12–24 hours before first pitch.

Vegas line

Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.

Model edge

Our model rates this game once both starters are confirmed.

Head to head

SeriesSeries tied 3-3

TypeRegular Season Series

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHW vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Davis MartinCHW
6.0± 2.8medium
Sean BurkeCHW
6.0± 1.6medium

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.2high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin McGonigleDET
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.4± 2.1high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
2.0± 3.0high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.9± 1.8high

RBIs

Colson MontgomeryCHW
0.7± 1.3high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.8high
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

David SandlinCHW
4.0± 4.9low
Framber ValdezDET
2.5± 2.4medium
Davis MartinCHW
2.3± 3.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

CHW

.704

OPS

.719

▶

.728

.313

OBP

.319

▶

.318

4.01

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.61

3.80

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.33

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.34

8.4

K / 9

8.5

8.4

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox

The matchup, end-to-end.

3 sub-models, blended.

CHW vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league