Portland Fire at Golden State Valkyries
POR
8-10
GS
11-7
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ortland Fire visit Golden State Valkyries Friday at 9/18 - 10:00 PM EDT. GS is 5-3 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
GS
Home
44
FG %
41
Season series
GS leads series 1-0
POR77@GS95GS@PORupcomingPOR@GStodayGS@PORupcomingScouting report
POR @ GS
Tale of the tape
8-10
Record
11-7
#6
Conf rank
#3
-6.8
Pt diff
+4.8
L1
Streak
W1
3-7
Last 10
6-4
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
GS vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Gabby WilliamsGS16.9± 9.0medium
- Carla LeitePOR12.9± 5.2medium
- Janelle SalaunGS12.6± 6.4medium
Rebounds
- Kayla ThorntonGS5.6± 3.1medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.3± 3.0medium
- Kiah StokesGS4.9± 1.7medium
Assists
- Carla LeitePOR6.1± 3.4medium
- Veronica BurtonGS5.2± 3.1medium
- Teja OblakPOR3.0± 2.8low
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.7± 1.1medium
- Kiah StokesGS1.5± 1.4medium
- Laeticia AmihereGS0.9± 1.1medium
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.4± 0.6medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.4± 1.4medium
- Bridget CarletonPOR1.3± 1.3medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
POR
league avg
GS
44.2%
FG%
44.9
40.9%
34.4%
3PT %
33.4
▶35.8%
82.0
PPG
86.3
▶83.4
19.8
Assists / G
18.0
18.4
14.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.3