New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx
NY
12-7
MIN
14-4
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ew York Liberty visit Minnesota Lynx Friday at 9/18 - 7:30 PM EDT. NY is 6-3 in their last 9. MIN is rolling — 6-2 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
NY
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
46
FG %
49
Season series
Series starts 7/3
MIN@NYupcomingNY@MINupcomingNY@MINtodayScouting report
NY @ MIN
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
MIN -13.1
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
MIN
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
12-7
Record
14-4
#2
Conf rank
#1
+5.0
Pt diff
+11.4
L1
Streak
W1
7-3
Last 10
8-2
67.4
Power score
80.5
#4
Power rank
#1
71.3
Sched ahead
60.7
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · MIN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs NY.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 50 high confidence
Points
- Olivia MilesMIN19.7± 7.5high
- Breanna StewartNY18.8± 6.2high
- Natasha HowardMIN17.3± 6.4medium
Rebounds
- Jonquel JonesNY8.8± 3.6high
- Breanna StewartNY8.7± 2.0high
- Natasha HowardMIN7.6± 3.9medium
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.3± 2.3high
- Courtney WilliamsMIN3.9± 1.6high
- Pauline AstierNY3.9± 1.6high
Blocks
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.6± 1.3high
- Breanna StewartNY1.4± 2.2high
- Jonquel JonesNY1.3± 0.8high
Steals
- Natasha HowardMIN2.1± 1.9medium
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.4± 1.1medium
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.4± 1.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
NY
league avg
MIN
46.2%
FG%
44.9
▶49.4%
34.8%
3PT %
33.4
▶38.1%
88.9
PPG
86.3
▶90.8
21.0
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.4
14.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.9