Indiana Fever at Toronto Tempo
IND
10-8
TOR
9-9
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ndiana Fever visit Toronto Tempo Friday at 9/18 - 7:30 PM EDT. IND is 5-4 in their last 9. TOR is 4-4 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
TOR
Home
47
FG %
44
Season series
IND leads series 1-0
TOR91@IND113IND@TORupcomingIND@TORtodayScouting report
IND @ TOR
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
IND -6.2
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
IND
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
10-8
Record
9-9
#3
Conf rank
#4
+2.8
Pt diff
-0.7
L1
Streak
W1
6-4
Last 10
5-5
55.9
Power score
49.7
#6
Power rank
#8
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · TOR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
TOR vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 50 high confidence
Points
- Marina MabreyTOR22.4± 15.3medium
- Kelsey MitchellIND21.4± 4.9high
- Caitlin ClarkIND21.1± 6.1high
Rebounds
- Aliyah BostonIND9.0± 1.7medium
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR6.0± 3.1low
- Monique BillingsIND5.0± 3.1high
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.9± 2.6high
- Julie AllemandTOR4.7± 5.3low
- Marina MabreyTOR3.7± 2.1medium
Blocks
- Aliyah BostonIND1.4± 1.4medium
- Nyara SaballyTOR1.3± 1.6low
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR0.9± 1.1low
Steals
- Julie AllemandTOR1.7± 1.3low
- Laura JuskaiteTOR1.7± 1.3high
- Isabelle HarrisonTOR1.3± 2.0low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
TOR
46.8%
FG%
44.9
44.3%
35.2%
3PT %
33.4
35.6%
93.0
PPG
86.3
91.4
21.1
Assists / G
18.0
19.9
15.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.9