Las Vegas Aces at Seattle Storm
LV
13-5
SEA
4-15
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
as Vegas Aces visit Seattle Storm Thursday at 9/17 - 10:00 PM EDT. LV is rolling — 7-2 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
LV
Away
Stat
SEA
Home
49
FG %
42
Season series
LV leads series 1-0
SEA91@LV101LV@SEAtodaySEA@LVupcomingScouting report
LV @ SEA
Tale of the tape
13-5
Record
4-15
#2
Conf rank
#8
+4.1
Pt diff
-6.2
W1
Streak
W1
8-2
Last 10
1-9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs LV.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
110
projections · 45 high confidence
Points
- A'ja WilsonLV25.7± 7.7medium
- Jackie YoungLV17.9± 6.3high
- Dominique MalongaSEA16.9± 13.4low
Rebounds
- A'ja WilsonLV9.4± 3.8medium
- Dominique MalongaSEA7.3± 4.4low
- NaLyssa SmithLV6.4± 3.1high
Assists
- Chelsea GrayLV7.6± 2.2high
- Jackie YoungLV6.9± 2.1high
- Natisha HiedemanSEA4.8± 2.4high
Blocks
- A'ja WilsonLV1.8± 2.0medium
- Dominique MalongaSEA1.1± 1.6low
- Awa FamSEA0.8± 1.5low
Steals
- A'ja WilsonLV1.6± 1.9medium
- Chelsea GrayLV1.3± 0.8high
- Jewell LoydLV1.3± 0.9medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LV
league avg
SEA
49.0%
FG%
44.9
41.9%
36.3%
3PT %
33.4
33.7%
89.8
PPG
86.3
79.8
23.1
Assists / G
18.0
18.5
12.4
Turnovers / G
13.0
13.8