Phoenix Mercury at Portland Fire
PHX
6-13
POR
8-10
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
hoenix Mercury visit Portland Fire Thursday at 9/17 - 10:00 PM EDT.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
PHX
Away
Stat
POR
Home
44
FG %
44
Season series
PHX leads series 1-0
PHX78@POR72POR@PHXupcomingPHX@PORtodayScouting report
PHX @ POR
Tale of the tape
6-13
Record
8-10
#7
Conf rank
#6
-3.5
Pt diff
-6.8
W1
Streak
L1
4-6
Last 10
3-7
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
POR vs PHX.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 25 high confidence
Points
- Kahleah CopperPHX20.0± 9.2high
- Alyssa ThomasPHX13.3± 6.7high
- Carla LeitePOR12.9± 5.2medium
Rebounds
- Natasha MackPHX8.3± 3.0high
- Alyssa ThomasPHX5.9± 2.5high
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.3± 3.0medium
Assists
- Alyssa ThomasPHX8.5± 2.3high
- Carla LeitePOR6.1± 3.4medium
- Teja OblakPOR3.0± 2.8low
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.7± 1.1medium
- Natasha MackPHX1.1± 1.1high
- DeWanna BonnerPHX0.8± 0.9high
Steals
- Monique Akoa MakaniPHX1.6± 1.0low
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.4± 1.4medium
- Alyssa ThomasPHX1.3± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
PHX
league avg
POR
43.5%
FG%
44.9
▶44.2%
31.8%
3PT %
33.4
▶34.4%
83.7
PPG
86.3
82.0
19.4
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.8
13.2
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.6