Los Angeles Sparks at Dallas Wings
LA
8-9
DAL
11-7
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
os Angeles Sparks visit Dallas Wings Thursday at 9/17 - 8:00 PM EDT. LA is 4-4 in their last 8. DAL is 5-4 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
LA
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
46
FG %
46
Season series
DAL leads series 1-0
DAL104@LA96LA@DALupcomingLA@DALtodayScouting report
LA @ DAL
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
DAL -10.7
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
DAL
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
8-9
Record
11-7
#5
Conf rank
#4
-4.4
Pt diff
+3.4
L1
Streak
L1
4-6
Last 10
6-4
43.3
Power score
54.1
#9
Power rank
#7
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs LA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 10 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey PlumLA23.3± 15.0low
- Paige BueckersDAL19.5± 8.0medium
- Nneka OgwumikeLA16.1± 6.6medium
Rebounds
- Jessica ShepardDAL11.1± 3.4medium
- Nneka OgwumikeLA9.0± 4.9medium
- Dearica HambyLA8.0± 2.5medium
Assists
- Kelsey PlumLA6.6± 3.5low
- Paige BueckersDAL6.5± 3.5medium
- Jessica ShepardDAL4.9± 3.0medium
Blocks
- Cameron BrinkLA1.5± 0.8medium
- Awak KuierDAL1.2± 0.9medium
- Azzi FuddDAL1.0± 1.7medium
Steals
- Azzi FuddDAL1.8± 1.7medium
- Ariel AtkinsLA1.7± 1.5medium
- Dearica HambyLA1.4± 1.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
LA
league avg
DAL
45.9%
FG%
44.9
46.4%
31.2%
3PT %
33.4
▶33.3%
88.9
PPG
86.3
89.1
20.2
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.8
14.2
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶10.4