Washington Mystics at Chicago Sky
WSH
8-8
CHI
5-12
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ashington Mystics visit Chicago Sky Thursday at 9/17 - 8:00 PM EDT. WSH is 4-4 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
CHI
Home
45
FG %
42
Season series
WSH leads series 1-0
CHI72@WSH90WSH@CHItodayCHI@WSHupcomingScouting report
WSH @ CHI
Tale of the tape
8-8
Record
5-12
#5
Conf rank
#6
-3.2
Pt diff
-4.7
L1
Streak
W1
5-5
Last 10
2-8
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · CHI favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
CHI vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Sonia CitronWSH17.6± 7.5medium
- Rickea JacksonCHI16.0± 11.0low
- Skylar DigginsCHI14.4± 7.2medium
Rebounds
- Shakira AustinWSH9.1± 3.8medium
- Kamilla CardosoCHI8.2± 4.8medium
- Kiki IriafenWSH7.7± 4.5low
Assists
- Skylar DigginsCHI4.2± 2.6medium
- Sonia CitronWSH4.0± 2.6medium
- Georgia AmooreWSH3.9± 2.9medium
Blocks
- Kamilla CardosoCHI2.0± 1.9medium
- Elizabeth WilliamsCHI1.2± 1.1medium
- Rickea JacksonCHI1.2± 1.6low
Steals
- Sonia CitronWSH1.3± 1.6medium
- Aicha CoulibalyCHI1.1± 1.2low
- Skylar DigginsCHI1.1± 1.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
CHI
44.9%
FG%
44.9
42.0%
30.0%
3PT %
33.4
▶30.4%
81.9
PPG
86.3
▶83.5
18.8
Assists / G
18.0
▶19.4
15.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.6