Connecticut Sun at Atlanta Dream
CON
3-15
ATL
12-5
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
onnecticut Sun visit Atlanta Dream Thursday at 9/17 - 7:30 PM EDT. ATL is rolling — 6-2 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
ATL
Home
43
FG %
44
Season series
ATL leads series 1-0
CON75@ATL91ATL@CONupcomingCON@ATLtodayScouting report
CON @ ATL
Tale of the tape
3-15
Record
12-5
#7
Conf rank
#1
-8.4
Pt diff
+6.1
W1
Streak
L1
2-8
Last 10
7-3
48.5
Sched ahead
52.1
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · ATL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
ATL vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 15 high confidence
Points
- Rhyne HowardATL18.9± 8.9medium
- Allisha GrayATL17.5± 6.6medium
- Angel ReeseATL15.1± 5.7medium
Rebounds
- Angel ReeseATL11.8± 4.1medium
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.8± 5.3medium
- Olivia Nelson-OdodaCON5.4± 5.7medium
Assists
- Jordin CanadaATL7.2± 3.9medium
- Leila LacanCON4.4± 2.9low
- Saniya RiversCON3.2± 1.9high
Blocks
- Brittney GrinerCON1.8± 1.7low
- Saniya RiversCON0.9± 0.9high
- Rhyne HowardATL0.8± 1.1medium
Steals
- Rhyne HowardATL2.5± 2.0medium
- Jordin CanadaATL2.0± 1.7medium
- Allisha GrayATL1.8± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
ATL
43.1%
FG%
44.9
▶44.3%
26.3%
3PT %
33.4
▶33.3%
79.9
PPG
86.3
▶89.0
18.8
Assists / G
18.0
▶20.2
13.6
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶12.4