MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

HOU

31-37

PregameTue, 9:38 PM EDT

LAA

25-42

ATS/HOU -1.5O/U/8.5ML/HOU-126

Verdict

Pass · no edge tonight.

The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.

Why this matchup

2 signals · model + market

Park factor

98 total idx

Angel Stadium run environment

Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.

Recent form

5-5

HOU +0.9 vs LAA +0.4 margin

HOU brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAA no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Drill down

Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Kai-Wei Teng

RP · #17

3-4

W-L

3.06

ERA

1.17

WHIP

47.0

Last 3 starts

vsPITL(3-4)5.0 IP4 ER1 K

vsMIL-5.0 IP3 ER7 K

@CHCW(3-3)6.0 IP0 ER6 K

Home starter

Walbert Urena

SP · #57

3-4

W-L

2.68

ERA

1.33

WHIP

50.1

Last 3 starts

vsCOLW(3-4)6.0 IP3 ER7 K

@TB-6.0 IP1 ER5 K

vsTEXW(2-4)5.0 IP1 ER6 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8.5

Money-126 / +104

Model edge

Win prob60% / 40%

LeanAway · 10pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesHOU leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take HOU on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-126Bet HOU ML↗-126Bet HOU ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8.5Bet the total↗O/U 8.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Scouting report · pre-game

LAA vs HOU.

LAA is 3-7 recently; HOU is 5-5.

40.0%

model · LAA win prob

Recent form

LAA3–7+0.4
HOU5–5+0.9

Situational

LAA1d restB2B
HOU1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. LAA has 0 straight road games; HOU has 1.

Model angle

+4.0ppon HOU

HOU's edge is mostly venue split plus head to head. Model confidence is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.2 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.2pp
▲Venue split+1.4pp
▼Model confidence-0.5pp

Players to watch

Jeremy PenaHOU
2.1total bases · ±2.1
Jeremy Pena · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.4 vs season 1.7.
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1total bases · ±1.9
Yordan Alvarez · 2.1 TB · last-10 2 vs season 2.3.
Isaac ParedesHOU
2.0total bases · ±1.9
Isaac Paredes · 2 TB · last-10 2.4 vs season 1.5.

Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1

LAA is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-06-08HOU @ LAA5–4

Line move

open +104→+104flat

The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.0%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
42.8%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.2%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
42.3%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Why we like HOU.

HOU's edge is mostly venue split plus head to head. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

+4.0

pp edge · HOU

0.00

CLV pp

2.5u · medium

on HOU

60.1%

±5.6pp band

2.46u medium — +4.3pp edge, quarter Kelly.

Edge

+6.9pp

+2.9pp post-cal

Kelly

9.8%

2.5% sized

Decimal

1.79

+4.3pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 4.0pp · HOU over LAA

▲
Venue split72% conf
HOU's venue form is 27.3pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.4pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
HOU is a lean, so the confidence layer stays modest.
-0.5pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
HOU has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved

Player projections

LAA vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

117

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts